June has come to pass with the swift speed that only Father Time could attain, and here we are still watching as the tumultuous markets work through their innate differences in a most vexing fashion. The famous "sell in May and go away" adage did not apply, and as we look back from our semi-annual perch piecing together the sparse similarities of historical precedence to some how map our way in an effort to gain some long-desired foresight, we need not be afraid. For the markets ALWAYS have this stubbornly magical, yet preordained habit of moving from the lower-left to the upper-right. From morning to noon and into the night... (*This rhyme is best served with a recent Andex chart. Feel free to scroll down to a recent post of mine in which you will find a wonderful reminder of what markets tend to do)
Asset selection is very very important from this point going forward. Easy to say, difficult to apply. There are many different theories on what a portfolio should look like... How to "learn from this one and finally build something that will guarantee principle value retention." It seems to me that all of these sudden preservation and V&L shaped recovery strategies are an explosive way to market a short-term reaction to the problem. Whereas, I am really interested as to what those select few who have stayed to their original investment policy in the face of adversity are up to. As they tend to be the ones skating to where the puck will be, where the rest of those "reactionaries" are busy adjusting course to where the puck is going.
People tend to chase performance by selecting investments that outperformed over the last 1,3, and 5 years. The best thing you can do for your current portfolio is to look at what you own today, and decide if its what you want to own tomorrow. Think about your future…
Moving on to a side-note.
In 2008, for the first time in human history, the majority of the world’s people lived in cities. And cities for the foreseeable future will continue to grow faster than the countrysides surrounding them. Globally, the number of people living in cities of 1 million or more will grow from about half a billion in 1975 to almost 2 billion in 2025. As a result, cities have assumed a central role in the urbanized world of the 21st century. They are wielding more economic power, developing greater political influence and increasingly employing more advanced technological capabilities to enhance their operations... This is an absolute and finite and indisputable reason why Globally competitive markets will continue their march from these lows. The continued urbanization of exisiting economic powerhouses, along with the creation of a middle-class in developing countries, will put a strain on supply and add to the demand for natural resources, services, and pretty much all industries across the board.
So, if the words of financial Armageddon have not pierced your heart and left you frozen in a state of asset-shock, then where do we begin? What story do you believe in? Look into your own portfolio and ask yourself these 2 questions:
- What investments do you want to own in the next 1,3, and 5 years?
- What are you concerned about for the next 1,3, and 5 years?
Alternative Energy? ♦ Municipal Bonds? ♦ Gold? ♦ Social Security going bust? ♦ Inflation running rampant? ♦ Deflation? ♦ Oil? ♦ Taxes going up? ♦ Monthly income? ♦ The dollar?
As the old guy next to me used to say: "A car could look sporty, but if it don't got it under the hood, then all that exterior jazz will just get blown off when the race starts..." So to should a portfolio need to have the best underlying story driving all the other parts, to not only finish the race, but to win the darn thing. It's the least you could do for yourself. Honest.
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