Well, much has happened since my last post... (And it appears that my picture choice had some preordained message attached to it...)
So where are we?
Japan pledges financial stability after earthquake
Last Friday’s devastating earthquake and the deepening nuclear crisis has rocked the world’s third-largest economy and will have an impact around the globe. But the Bank of Japan has pledged to ensure financial stability by injecting record amounts of cash into the banking system while the G7 agreed to intervene in currency markets to weaken the soaring yen.
Factories producing everything from semi-conductor chips to car parts have shut down or are prepared for rolling blackouts, threatening supplies to manufacturers across the globe. With damages estimated at up to US$200-billion, economists anticipate a contraction in Japan’s second-quarter GDP, and then a sharp rebound in the latter half of 2011 due to reconstruction investment. (Emotions overplay the facts after such chaotic events.)
In Canada, wholesale sales rose 1.5% in January over December, gaining for a sixth month. Manufacturing sales jumped 4.5%, reaching their highest since October 2008, driven by the auto and aerospace sectors. Labour productivity rose last year at the fastest pace since 2005, but still lagged behind the U.S. as a strong loonie pushed up costs. Household debt nudged lower as Canadians cooled their borrowing in the fourth quarter of 2010 and average net worth rose 4.1% to beat the pre-recession peak set in 2008. U.S. jobless claims fell, marking the third decline in four weeks. Employers added 192,000 jobs in February, causing unemployment to drop to 8.9%, the lowest since April 2009.
*Leading indicators suggest growth in developed nations – particularly Germany, the U.S., France and Canada – and a slowdown for China, India and Italy, according to the OECD.
**The migration from pessimistic pricing to optimistic pricing continues on....
***Macro view of this cycle: Started March 2009 - Peaking somewhere in 2012. (Seasonality is in play... Watch to move from Energy weighting to other sectors as the old "sell in May, go away" mantra takes hold.
Comments and Recommendations:
Equities: “not to minimize the human tragedy in Japan, this sell-off is healthy for equity markets and investors should be looking to add to positions on this bout of current market weakness.”
Fixed income: “Term Call – we recommend investors move further out the yield curve to a market neutral duration position. Sector Call – underweight Canada, overweight Municipals, Provincials, and Corporates. Currency Call – we recommend Canadian investors remain in Canadian dollars for their fixed income holdings. Alternative Strategies – overweight high yield, marketweight Emerging Markets Debt, underweight inflation protected debt.”
Portfolio Strategy: “we don't expect the pullback to exceed the 10% mark as we doubt the Japanese situation triggers a global recession.”
Best Regards and Safe Investing.
E.
So where are we?
Japan pledges financial stability after earthquake
Last Friday’s devastating earthquake and the deepening nuclear crisis has rocked the world’s third-largest economy and will have an impact around the globe. But the Bank of Japan has pledged to ensure financial stability by injecting record amounts of cash into the banking system while the G7 agreed to intervene in currency markets to weaken the soaring yen.
Factories producing everything from semi-conductor chips to car parts have shut down or are prepared for rolling blackouts, threatening supplies to manufacturers across the globe. With damages estimated at up to US$200-billion, economists anticipate a contraction in Japan’s second-quarter GDP, and then a sharp rebound in the latter half of 2011 due to reconstruction investment. (Emotions overplay the facts after such chaotic events.)
In Canada, wholesale sales rose 1.5% in January over December, gaining for a sixth month. Manufacturing sales jumped 4.5%, reaching their highest since October 2008, driven by the auto and aerospace sectors. Labour productivity rose last year at the fastest pace since 2005, but still lagged behind the U.S. as a strong loonie pushed up costs. Household debt nudged lower as Canadians cooled their borrowing in the fourth quarter of 2010 and average net worth rose 4.1% to beat the pre-recession peak set in 2008. U.S. jobless claims fell, marking the third decline in four weeks. Employers added 192,000 jobs in February, causing unemployment to drop to 8.9%, the lowest since April 2009.
*Leading indicators suggest growth in developed nations – particularly Germany, the U.S., France and Canada – and a slowdown for China, India and Italy, according to the OECD.
**The migration from pessimistic pricing to optimistic pricing continues on....
***Macro view of this cycle: Started March 2009 - Peaking somewhere in 2012. (Seasonality is in play... Watch to move from Energy weighting to other sectors as the old "sell in May, go away" mantra takes hold.
Comments and Recommendations:
Equities: “not to minimize the human tragedy in Japan, this sell-off is healthy for equity markets and investors should be looking to add to positions on this bout of current market weakness.”
Fixed income: “Term Call – we recommend investors move further out the yield curve to a market neutral duration position. Sector Call – underweight Canada, overweight Municipals, Provincials, and Corporates. Currency Call – we recommend Canadian investors remain in Canadian dollars for their fixed income holdings. Alternative Strategies – overweight high yield, marketweight Emerging Markets Debt, underweight inflation protected debt.”
Portfolio Strategy: “we don't expect the pullback to exceed the 10% mark as we doubt the Japanese situation triggers a global recession.”
Best Regards and Safe Investing.
E.
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