Thursday, November 13, 2008

Charting Ideas...

When in doubt, I like to pull out the ol' ANDEX charts. The detail is exceptional when comparing past recessions and bear markets to inflation, GDP growth, price of oil, Presidential cycles, currency, and various unsystemic "shocks" that have occured throughout history (war, etc...).

It truly helps when trying to visualize and maintain mental positivity during times when Global Markets as a whole are cascading downwards... Seemingly endless...


SIDE NOTE:

Strategy - Don Cox
INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS


1. It is definitely too late to sell stocks, and it is still too early to do more than nibble at bargains. Investors should be opportunistic buyers, because today’s prices for quality stocks will look ridiculously cheap within two years—or less.

2. When the time comes to begin re-accumulating equities, buy banks and diversified financials. If there is going to be a global economicrecovery, these former pariahs should perform well—under mostly newmanagement.

3. At the same time, buy commodity-oriented stocks. They are oversold to depths we could not have imagined. When, not if, there is a global economic recovery, these stocks will once again be the winning asset class.

4. While you are waiting, you should be beginning to accumulate the bonds—convertible and otherwise—of quality corporations. What could be the trigger for a major equity rally would be a sharp contraction in the near-record yield spread between investment-quality corporates and Treasurys.

5. Buy Emerging Market bonds from the fundamentally sound economies,such as China, India, and Brazil. Avoid Eastern European debt.

6. Another group to be included when you are once again accumulating stocks is the leading business-oriented tech stocks. These companies will participate in a global recovery, whereas the consumer-oriented techs may have to wait quite a while.

7. This is also a good time to be looking at the railroad stocks. They benefit from lower energy costs, which may offset a significant percentage of the cutback in top-line revenues during the recession. Coming out the other side, they should be core investments.

8. Gold has been a disappointment. It has outperformed stocks since the S&P’s peaks, but not enough to be profitable. As deflation fears ebb, it will once again be lustrous.


G'Luck!


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