Tuesday, November 25, 2008

"Don't Judge Your Financial Future On The Last 40 Trading Days..."



There are incredible movements in the Canadian banking sector to stimulate lending again. A luncheon recently took place in which the Presidents/CEO's of many institutional banks and private firms met to discuss strategies going forward. The great thing that's taking place is that even the OSFI (Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions), which is the regulating arm here in Canada, is closely monitoring the rate-cuts and other actions of the banks. This ensures that all are on even ground, with no one straying from the plan to "undercut" the next guy and gleam some sort of profit during the next few quarters. (There's one in every group...)

So to sum up what we are already hearing, Canada is in a pretty liquid position. Our nations banking structure is Oligopolic in nature, which allows the need for very little foot-work to encourage unanimous change. (Just need to apply a little "moral suasion" to the top 4-5 banks to make the necessary changes... The rest will fall into play). The problem is, even when credit gets moving again, it is but a pin-drop to truly effect the real problems going forward... The US is of course the key.

Unfortunately, the US banking system is much more layered than ours here in Canada, and leads to the number of banks recently failing in America. (There are more to follow...) On the other hand, Obama seems to be doing everything right. Selecting his people, allowing for certain information to "leak out" to the markets. (We all saw the effect on Friday in the final hour of trading) Also, Government guarantee's in the mortgage market seems to be giving financial institutions some breathing room. Who knows, they may get credit moving after all. (I'm still holding to my guess by the New Year... Fingers crossed Santa)

The code of the Samurai: "Expect nothing. Prepare for Everything."

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