3 days of falling markets and all of a sudden Halloween may look to be a little scarier this year. I'll admit that being contrarian to the contrarians has paid off this year, and that our fully invested strategy of picking up growth at cheaply valued prices has allowed us to bulk up during these tumultuous times. Is this the second wave that everyone was waiting for? The second opportunity for those who sat the sidelines in shell-shocked disbelief as markets ran for the better part of this year?
Seems agreeable to think so... Or maybe it seems easier to think so... For nothing effects us as investors worse than that of hindsight. Of seeing lost opportunity, and inadvertently dwelling in dismay of the riches we should have made. But remember, hindsight may embolden you to sway from your plan and fall victim to the emotional roller coaster.
To be led, or to lead...
That is a million dollar question that defines overall success in ones investment strategy, and is the question I ask myself every day before picking up that newspaper, or turning on the "talking heads" of business television. It's worth it's weight in gold to ask this question when fighting the urge to act emotionally. This is something I value in the actions of other professionals in my field who manage to tame this beast and stick by their convictions.
The following is an excerpt from an email a colleague sent to me regarding the fall in the market of late. I hope it helps you to see past the influence of negative bearish sentiment that has been unleashed by many in the media lime-light:
"I just wanted to share something I saw on the CNBC website. They were four headlines:
- Fast money traders say tech decline may mean bull dead.
- Art Cashin says dollar decline carry trade could cause BIG pullback.
- Stocks are at least 20% overvalued....Rosenberg.
- Doug Kass says markets have made highs for year.
Almost makes you want to sell everything. I would resist that temptation as all of these headlines are very bullish. You may find 2 out of 10 people that are bullish. That is a perfect scenario.
It amazes me that tech can act so well since March and they start to correct which is very healthy and the fast traders are calling for their demise. Art Cashin has been bearish for the last 150 S&P points- eventually he will be right. Our good friend at Gluskin has been bearish since 666- not good. And Doug Kass who made a fantastic call in March sadly decided to get off the train at 950 S&P and so he is reiterating his bearish call made 6 weeks ago.
We are currently down 3.4 % on the S&P from recent high and as we all know, the avg. % drop since Mar 9 has been just over 5%. Even if we get a sharp short pullback to 1000 which would be just over 9% just like the June- July selling period, don't be deterred. Stay the course, stay invested as the S&P will likely continue to foil the bears and close 2009 upwards of 80 % from the March lows.
Have a great day. Happy investing." - Cheers.
The following is an excerpt from an email a colleague sent to me regarding the fall in the market of late. I hope it helps you to see past the influence of negative bearish sentiment that has been unleashed by many in the media lime-light:
"I just wanted to share something I saw on the CNBC website. They were four headlines:
- Fast money traders say tech decline may mean bull dead.
- Art Cashin says dollar decline carry trade could cause BIG pullback.
- Stocks are at least 20% overvalued....Rosenberg.
- Doug Kass says markets have made highs for year.
Almost makes you want to sell everything. I would resist that temptation as all of these headlines are very bullish. You may find 2 out of 10 people that are bullish. That is a perfect scenario.
It amazes me that tech can act so well since March and they start to correct which is very healthy and the fast traders are calling for their demise. Art Cashin has been bearish for the last 150 S&P points- eventually he will be right. Our good friend at Gluskin has been bearish since 666- not good. And Doug Kass who made a fantastic call in March sadly decided to get off the train at 950 S&P and so he is reiterating his bearish call made 6 weeks ago.
We are currently down 3.4 % on the S&P from recent high and as we all know, the avg. % drop since Mar 9 has been just over 5%. Even if we get a sharp short pullback to 1000 which would be just over 9% just like the June- July selling period, don't be deterred. Stay the course, stay invested as the S&P will likely continue to foil the bears and close 2009 upwards of 80 % from the March lows.
Have a great day. Happy investing." - Cheers.
