Monday, August 9, 2010

Marketable Ideas.....


Well here we are.....

It is volatile months like July that makes one realize the benefits of leaving the "long only" business, and focusing on a more active (directional) mandate.

It seems like we've been at this inflection point forever, with the end of the world one possibility and a new bull market the other. But what is the bull case really built on? Terrible economic numbers and European bank stress tests that failed to consider sovereign bond holdings, this is only the biggest risk to the banks.

Economists, for what it's worth, seem to have all gone negative, but for opposite reasons. The fact that the long bond can be at all-time highs - a deflation worry - while gold is also at all-time highs - an inflation worry - illustrates the unparalleled disparity of views.

FinReg (aka the Volcker Rule) is starting to have an impact on the hedge fund industry. Morgan Stanley is selling down its stake in its successful Front Point Partners and Goldman Sachs has decided to spin out its prop trading business. Major industry changes lie ahead...

While most thinking is still bearish, the resilience of this market to all the negativity makes me unwilling to take on much directional exposure wither way. In other words, I'm looking to protect investors no matter what the market brings.

Best Regards and Safe Investing.